Yet these isolated areas of success have still failed to stop file-sharing, or even slow its growth. Suing file-sharers has accomplished little more than foster the abandonment of the FastTrack (Kazaa) network. Attempts to shut down BitTorrent indexing sites has netted some notable victories, such as OinK, but for every BitTorrent site shut down, a new one almost immediately takes it place. And as far as flooding networks with corrupted files goes, one only need to peruse MediaDefender’s leaked emails to see how well that’s going. With all attempts failing, the last line of defense against the growing surge of file-sharing rests with the ISP. Here are the staggering odds they face:
1) P2P downloads outweigh “legitimate” downloads 20:1.
2) iTunes has sold about 3.5-4 billion songs since 2003, while P2P networks trade
over 1 billion music files per month (not including BitTorrent, Usenet, etc).
3) The public has expressed its vehement disdain toward ISP filtering. The file-sharing community will see this as an act of war.
4) The technological arms race is heavily in favor of P2P. It has a massive resource of talented, motivated, and angry programmers working to defeat anything thrown at their beloved networks.
5) The ISP is the last line of defense against file-sharing. If they fail, there’s nothing left to stop the spread of file-sharing. Laws won’t deter the lawless.
The entertainment industry is placing its bets with its last line of defense, the ISP. Even if the ISP is forced into a position of filtering or disconnecting users, it won’t last long. File-sharing technology is resilient, and has repeatedly proven to counteract anything thrown at it. Efforts thus far aimed to filter or throttle BitTorrent or P2P technology have been spotty, with a public relations backlash that only the music industry can relate to. IFPI Chairman John Kennedy introduced his organization’s report with the following:
“2007 was the year ISP responsibility started to become an accepted principle. 2008 must be the year it become reality.”
He’s right. For the sake of his industry, 2008 must be the year it becomes a reality. If it doesn’t, 2009 will be the year of the torrent.