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P2P Downloads Crush iTunes/Digital Sales 20:1
January 24, 2008
Thomas Mennecke
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Guess what, people do download from iTunes, didn’t ya know. In fact, there’s been over 3 billion downloads since the service began in 2003, and the music store should hit its 4 billionth sale sometime this year. That’s great news, it would appear, for the music industry, which has been in a global slump since 1999 - the same year Napster brought P2P technology to the mainstream.

However, not all is well in the land of the music industry. In fact, things haven’t improved all that much since Napster launched, and by all accounts, things have grown dramatically worse. In a yearly report published by the IFPI, 2007 proved to be a year of continuing turmoil. CD sales are down, increases in digital sales failed to offset losses, and the music industry is growing desperate. It’s no secret that the entertainment industry is sending out perhaps their last best hope in turning the tables against piracy – the ISP.

The ISP (Internet Service Provider) has been at center state in the online copyright wars since mid-2007. Protected by the DMCA (Digital Millennium Copyright Act), ISPs are protected by a safe harbor provision which grants immunity from any law breaking activity that may occur on their networks. Sounds great. Yet ISPs are being pressured into becoming copyright traffic cops, with juggernauts such as AT&T voluntarily absolving themselves of the protection of the DMCA. ISPs are also feeling the heat in Europe, as President Nicolas Sarkozy has created a “French Connection” of sorts between his government, ISPs and content providers. The agreement proposes that ISPs disconnect large scale uploaders, while developing and implementing filtering technologies.

The IFPI, in its 2008 Digital Music Report, recognizes that P2P and file-sharing technology is strong, is increasing in popularity, and is becoming more difficult to control. It’s been nearly 10 years since the inception of Napster, and the industry has attempted a myriad of solutions to the P2P problem. As pointed out by the IFPI’s study, there are cases of success. Whether these successes are a result of enforcement against P2P is another matter, however. The IFPI's study cites a dramatic increase in the number of authorized services, the number of licensed tracks, and the number of tracks sold. These increased are impressive; however, digital tracks have failed to offset the decline of the CD, as “first half” music sales for 2007 are down 9%.

Yet these isolated areas of success have still failed to stop file-sharing, or even slow its growth. Suing file-sharers has accomplished little more than foster the abandonment of the FastTrack (Kazaa) network. Attempts to shut down BitTorrent indexing sites has netted some notable victories, such as OinK, but for every BitTorrent site shut down, a new one almost immediately takes it place. And as far as flooding networks with corrupted files goes, one only need to peruse MediaDefender’s leaked emails to see how well that’s going. With all attempts failing, the last line of defense against the growing surge of file-sharing rests with the ISP. Here are the staggering odds they face:

1) P2P downloads outweigh “legitimate” downloads 20:1.

2) iTunes has sold about 3.5-4 billion songs since 2003, while P2P networks trade over 1 billion music files per month (not including BitTorrent, Usenet, etc).

3) The public has expressed its vehement disdain toward ISP filtering. The file-sharing community will see this as an act of war.

4) The technological arms race is heavily in favor of P2P. It has a massive resource of talented, motivated, and angry programmers working to defeat anything thrown at their beloved networks.

5) The ISP is the last line of defense against file-sharing. If they fail, there’s nothing left to stop the spread of file-sharing. Laws won’t deter the lawless.

The entertainment industry is placing its bets with its last line of defense, the ISP. Even if the ISP is forced into a position of filtering or disconnecting users, it won’t last long. File-sharing technology is resilient, and has repeatedly proven to counteract anything thrown at it. Efforts thus far aimed to filter or throttle BitTorrent or P2P technology have been spotty, with a public relations backlash that only the music industry can relate to. IFPI Chairman John Kennedy introduced his organization’s report with the following:

“2007 was the year ISP responsibility started to become an accepted principle. 2008 must be the year it become reality.”

He’s right. For the sake of his industry, 2008 must be the year it becomes a reality. If it doesn’t, 2009 will be the year of the torrent.


This story is filed in these Slyck News categories
File-Sharing/P2P Related :: Studies/Research

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