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P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby SlyckTom » Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:34 pm

In the see-saw battle of P2P statistics, there's yet another entry, this time from MultiMedia Intelligence. According to their study, P2P technology is going to see explosive growth in the magnitude of 400% in the next five years, equating to 8 petabytes of traffic per month. That's enough to make any ISP cringe.

The study attributes this growth to the rise of legitimate P2P traffic. That's a bold prediction, considering that authorized music/video stores from BitTorrent, LimeWire, and Azureus currently represent a minimal piece of the P2P pie. The overwhelming majority of P2P traffic exists on BitTorrent, and most of that traffic is part of The Pirate Bay's network. The Pirate Bay does contain a plethora of legitimate torrents, however their motivation is still entrenched in P2P traditionalism. Apparently, this will all change soon.

“The awareness of P2P networking grew from the illicit ‘sharing’ of music files, much to the chagrin of content holders,” according to Frank Dickson, Chief Research Officer with MultiMedia Intelligence. “Despite the prevailing perceptions of P2P as synonymous with content piracy, P2P is emerging as viable means of distributing legitimate content.”

This study is in direct contrast with Ipoque's preliminary 2008 study, which finds that P2P growth has slowed within the last year. According to Ipoque's study, there's been a slight decline in P2P traffic from 2007, as more individuals are opting for online storage sites like RapidShare and MegaDownload. Considering that authorized P2P traffic uses the same protocols as unauthorized P2P traffic, it would be interesting to see where the critical mass necessary for a 400% increase will come from.

However, lending credence to MultiMedia Intelligence's report is isoHunt's latest news. According to isoHunt's latest statistics, the BitTorrent indexer is currently cataloging over 1.1 petabyte of information - only 7 petabytes shy of MultiMedia's 8 petabyte prediction. Although the study predicts that legitimate traffic will eventually outstrip unauthorized traffic, it seems more plausible that both will work together to achieve this lofty 8 petabyte goal - providing authorized P2P stores become marketable.

And that’s a lofty goal on its own. Not only does legitimate P2P have to compete with unauthorized file-sharing, it has to compete with iTunes and TV show web sites. Studios such as NBC or ComedyCentral have virtually all scheduled programming available on their respective websites, negating a need for the average consumer to pirate TV shows. And it’s those average consumers that legitimate P2P needs to attract if they have any chance of succeeding.

Legitimate file-sharing resources could potentially become marketable with movie distribution. Streaming half hour or hour TV shows isn’t terribly challenging; however, once we get into the 2 hour movie realm, that’s when serious bandwidth power is needed. But the big question remains whether studios will embrace P2P as a mechanism for distribution, or just stick with what work, i.e., provide direct server-client streaming.



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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby hiro81 » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:51 am

“The awareness of P2P networking grew from the illicit ‘sharing’ of music files, much to the chagrin of content holders,” according to Frank Dickson, Chief Research Officer with MultiMedia Intelligence. “Despite the prevailing perceptions of P2P as synonymous with content piracy, P2P is emerging as viable means of distributing legitimate content.”


What a dick. There is no such thing as "legitimate content". It's either content or it's not. The method I use to obtain it is irrelevant if I am a rights holder.

/cue the shark. yeah, I'm a shaaaaaaark...
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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby Tyranoth » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:15 am

"Infrastructure upgrades" just do it! :)
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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby Fartingbob » Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:13 am

SlyckTom wrote:The overwhelming majority of P2P traffic exists on BitTorrent, and most of that traffic is part of The Pirate Bay's network.

I dont doubt the first point, but is the majority of BT traffic really through TPB?
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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby ntscuser » Fri Oct 24, 2008 11:52 am

That's enough to make any ISP cringe.
If I remember correctly, ISPs were only too happy to exploit p2p as a method of persuading people to sign up with them in the first place?
Mine certainly was. :nopity:
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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby voodoohippie » Sat Nov 01, 2008 9:41 pm

TPB is not the only place to find whole albums. #B#t#j#u#n#k#i#e.org works very well and imho out performs TPB at times. I think TPB is a good site, but come on its not the only place to find full movies and albums. Plus the more they hype these sites the more users they'll have. The entertainment industry needs to get it right and come up with an ad based solution where the content makers get paid for what the users consume. Now that the case of rather ip's are a liable way to snag people is proven not to carry so much weight I believe they'll have no other choice but to join in on the action.
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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby boneface » Sun Nov 02, 2008 7:11 am

P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years


Soon i will be able to download that car i can't afford. :pirate:
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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby multivariable » Sun Nov 02, 2008 7:19 am

voodoohippie wrote:The entertainment industry needs to get it right and come up with an ad based solution where the content makers get paid for what the users consume.

Play a different record, will ya?
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Re: P2P Traffic to Grow 400% in 5 Years

Postby Downloader » Sun Nov 02, 2008 7:38 am

voodoohippie wrote: The entertainment industry needs to get it right and come up with an ad based solution where the content makers get paid for what the users consume.


That would not intice me to their sites. I hate advertisements with a furious passion.
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