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ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby SlyckTom » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:04 am

If studies and surveys are any indication of the truth, UK residents would put to an end their P2P ways if ISPs started getting involved with copyright enforcement. Under the "three strikes" proposal, repetitive and high volume offenders would be disconnected for trading copyrighted works.

That threat seems to have struck a chord, as the results from Entertainment Media Research found that 7 out of 10 UK residents would stop their pirating ways if they received a letter from their ISP.

"Fear over being caught is a strong impetus to quit, but over 2 In 3 believe it is very unlikely they will ever be caught downloading. People are concerned about stories of prosecution, but they don’t believe they will be caught in the first place," the study reads.

The survey found significant wiggle room around the P2P epidemic, however. Older responders in the survey reported a growing disconnect with technology, and those over age 35 were more willing to pay for music and entertainment. It also found that social networking sites held a tremendous potential for music distribution.

If the survey is right, and fear is keeping the masses at bay from P2P, this apparent retraction in file-sharing may be temporary. Consider the longevity of the "three strikes" policy in the UK, which is already showing signs of deterioration. Here's a blog excerpt from the Prime Minister’s office:

"Unfortunately, much of the media reports around this issue have been incorrect. There are no proposals to make ISPs liable for the content that travels across their networks. Nor are there proposals for ISPs to monitor customer activity for illegal downloading, or to enforce a “3 strikes” policy."

The study does show there's some impressive room for digital music to thrive online - among those who are concerned about being cut off, older users, and those frequenting social sites. But if the “three strikes” proposal goes nowhere, those fears may subside rather soon.



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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby Dazzle_2 » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:35 am

The reason why there is not going to be any so called 3 strikes policy as the UK government was pressured to make clear is that under european law such disconnections are totally illegal and those attempting such activity will be leaving themselves open to major scale fines.

I have in another thread made certain observations regarding this report and the company producing it that i hope you will all find educational.

viewtopic.php?t=44870

I can reassure many folks here that any claim regarding older folks wanting to part with their cash to the recording industry is not only "creative" but down right wrong.
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby MrFredPFL » Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:08 pm

Dazzle_2 wrote:I can reassure many folks here that any claim regarding older folks wanting to part with their cash to the recording industry is not only "creative" but down right wrong.


sorry to have to break it to you, dazzle, but this blanket statement is no more accurate than the blanket statements made by the people you dislike so intensely. while i don't happen to be one of them, i know plenty of older people who know little or nothing about filesharing, and the legal circus that has surrounded it since napster, and are perfectly willing to spend money on music. you do the cause no service by making the same type of false statements as you condemn from the RIAA. don't operate on their level ;)
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby Dazzle_2 » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:09 pm

Do you have any factually based documentation to make the claim I,m making a false statement Mr Fred ?

I would be interested reading any "published" accurate reports covering the age dynamic that are produced by large scale real research conducted in a professional manner, I do have an information base I can harvest to gather such data and it certainly is a lot more accurate that a mere 1500-1600 folks out of the at least 1 Million utilising sharing/downloading methods in the UK.

Of course I,m always ready to step back and apologise for misleading anyone if what I,m saying is flawed in some way, so if you have some extra data I,m not privy to perhaps you can show me something I,m missing ?
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby Psycho Ced » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:18 pm

Dazzle_2 wrote:
Of course I,m always ready to step back and apologise for misleading anyone if what I,m saying is flawed in some way, so if you have some extra data I,m not privy to perhaps you can show me something I,m missing ?

Well technically, he has provided the same level of documentation/proof you have.
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby MrFredPFL » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:39 pm

i've given you my data. i personally know lots of older people who pay for music. i find it difficult to believe that if that's the case in the US, it isn't also the case in the UK.

ps: i'd actually say i've provided more documentation, ced. i've identified my database ;)
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby Dazzle_2 » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:31 pm

Can I suggest you further refrain from suggesting I,m making false claims if your unable to provide any statistically based evidence to support them.

I am rather more than willing for you to visit my forum and check the data yourself on the age groups involved, if you would kindly care to look under the birthdays section you,ll see the vast majority of users are around the 40 mark, and I know for sure none of those people are ever likely to pay for such "legal" downloads , like yourself I rely on using my eyes and ears to spot the trends, I surely cannot be at fault if you cannot provide any single documented case to back your claim as opposed to my own publicly accessible offering.

Also please read these sources to look at the changing online age dynamic and the general public's hesitancy in making their p2p usage known, both these are key factors you seem to have overlooked.

http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Fil ... arch05.pdf

Current file downloaders are now more likely to say they use online music services like iTunes than they are to report using p2p services. The percentage of music downloaders who have tried paid services has grown from 24% in 2004 to 43% in our most recent survey. However, respondents may now be less likely to report peer-to-peer usage due to the stigma associated with the networks


http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Wir ... 6_Memo.pdf

Currently, the vast majority of Americans age 65 and older do not go online. But that will likely change in a big way as the "silver tsunami" of internet-loving Baby Boomers swamps the off-line senior population in the next 10 years. That demographic shift, paired with a rising tide of viruses, spyware, and other online critters, is cause for concern since there is evidence that older users are less likely than younger ones to take precautions against software intrusions and fraud.


We are still in the flux of social change as regards online activity, closing our eyes to aspects we don't wish to be seen encouraging should not be seen as a sign there is no such activity taking place.
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby MrFredPFL » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:54 pm

Dazzle_2 wrote:I would be interested reading any "published" accurate reports covering the age dynamic that are produced by large scale real research conducted in a professional manner


and yet you provide no such thing yourself. instead, you essentially say "my data is more valid than yours".

furthermore, i would think anyone who's a stickler for "research conducted in a professional manner" would know it totally invalidates the credibility of any such "study" when it is performed by someone with a clear vested interest in the subject. additionally, people who voluntarily sign up for a filesharing forum are not a representative sampling. these are key factors you seem to have overlooked ;)

in any event, i will say it again: i know lots of older people who BUY music. forget their reluctance to admit their habits to a stranger conducting a survey. they are talking to a friend, and i can, in many cases, physically SEE the actual media they bought, which belies any explanation of "too shy to admit to having downloaded and burned it". if the media industry claimed all older people want to pay for media, i'd say they were full of shit. but i hold the same opinion of the opposite claim. i have NO argument with the statement that "lots of older people are willing to pay for media." my personal experience confirms the truth of the statement, hypothetical surveys and analysis of non-representative samples notwithstanding.

as bob dylan said:

you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

so, i'll sum it up. if you are saying "they are lying when they say many older people will pay for media", then i call BS. in my experience, many will. if i misunderstood what you were trying to say, please enlighten me.
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby Dazzle_2 » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:29 pm

I dont believe you provided any "data" Mrfred, a minor oversight on your part but expected, I had hoped you would point to a published study or two to at least legitimise your claimed view as I did, but its clear what your stating is an "off the cuff" remark based soley on your viewpoint, thats fine with me as I have at least made that point clear to myself and other readers.

For the "off the cuff" record I know hundreds of folks who are not in the 10-30 age bracket who are steadfast in not purchasing low bitrate offerings packed with DRM, this of course is my personal view based on what they have told me over the years its also the current view of the RIAA who often state "creative" loss figures that no one seems to bother refuting so they must be true :lol:
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby MrFredPFL » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:48 pm

:lol:

forgive me if i don't disbelieve what i can see with my own eyes, please. i don't need to look at a survey to know that many people like filesharing. i know it from direct interaction with many who do. likewise, i don't need to look at a survey to know that many older people don't mind paying for music - again, i know it from direct interaction with many who do.

don't forget we're on the same side here :P ;)

Dazzle_2 wrote: I know hundreds of folks who are not in the 10-30 age bracket who are steadfast in not purchasing low bitrate offerings packed with DRM


i haven't disputed that for a moment. (and just as a minor point, a person who buys a CD isn't getting low bitrate, are they? we were, after all, talking about spending money on music in general. i didn't notice where the subject of discussion was limited to low bitrate, DRM infested music ;) )
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby voodoohippie » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:25 am

Well I'm 44 and after the Metallica/Napster circus go round and the RIAA suing everyone under the sun including 12 yr old children I have made a well thought out decision not to ever buy a CD again. I love the point and click solution that is not only in PC's, but in Mp3 players and I also believe that DvD's and those Blue Ray disc's will be replaced by Pc's with over 1800 GB HDD's and portable video devices with over 700 GB's in which you can have over 11,000 full featured films installed onto them. Not only that but internet speeds are constantly accelerating so on the future there will be ways to make tons of money via ad supported Downloads and subscription streaming and or Downloading services. I also believe many artists will start to see the value of the indie labels as apposed to the RIAA and the RIAA will become the dinosaur if the entertainment world. Just as I've predicted that long distance calls will be a flat rate because of the phone phreakers, so too will Digital music become more available and at an easy flat rate where everyone can afford and possibly without DRM. Oh and one more thing before I put my rant to rest. It is the contrary to what was posted about people buying more music when they are in their 40's. Most people in their 40's already know how to bypass DRM as I do myself. I take advantage of subscription music services when I can't find that full album on bit torrent sites. However their DRM does nothing to stop me from putting the tunes on as many devices as I see fit and not only that but I can give to whom ever I want. Most youngsters who listen to Rap music don't even have the patience to try and figure out Tunebite or Soundtaxi, they are the ones heading to iTunes to download their record of someone chanting "brother bill".
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby bifter » Tue Oct 14, 2008 5:02 am

I think surveys can be important in identifying trends but it's important to remember that they are not always entirely accurate and the conclusions that are drawn are only hypothesis. It's also important to know who commissioned the research and any assumptions made - I have to say I don't know anything about this organisation and the article isn't forthcoming. The BBC isn't what it used to be I'm afraid to say.

However they are suggesting that the availability of 'legitimate' online download services is increasing and this, along with the warning letters that the ISPs have been forced to dispatch by the BMI, have succeeded in attracting downloaders to such services. Seems a fair enough theory backed up with some statistics. I've said all along that this was the end game that the industry was playing for. My tuppenceworth is that such gains for the industry may be most evident at the start but that this approach will deliver diminishing returns due to the large number of people who are now used to downloading premium grade, non-DRM content for free. The industry missed the boat 10 years ago when they nuked Napster.
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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby craftycorner » Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:27 am

If this (scared downloaders vs 3 strikes law) trend is accurate, it will only last until the latest data befuddlement device. :pirate:
My God, its full of files!

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Re: ISP Involvement May Stem P2P Usage in UK

Postby Dazzle_2 » Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:17 am

As I believe I pointed out in my initial post Bifter, this study is a rehash of their older one with virtually no changes except the few words stating they believe this policy would cut illicit downloading by 70% and the now absurd claim it is having such an effect, the real joke is I have yet to hear from a single user who has received one of these notices and I have big "ears", I would of course advise them to sue their ISP under human rights legislation as a 3 strikes (or even 20 strikes) policy has been deemed illegal by the european union and confirmed as such by the UK government recently.
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